Tech’s jobs recession isn’t over, and August’s data proves it

Pay data adds a relevant detail. Average hourly earnings in the information sector rose 5.2% year-over-year in August, nearly double the economy-wide rate of 3.1% and the fastest wage growth of any major industry BLS tracks. A sector cutting headcount while paying the people it keeps significantly more than the rest of the economy fits a recognizable pattern: fewer, more senior roles doing more with less, rather than a broad-based hiring freeze.

A pattern, not a one-off

This is the second time this year HRD has gone looking for an AI signature in the labor data, and the story keeps getting more specific rather than less. Back in June, reporting on the “AI jobs apocalypse” question found the opposite of the popular narrative: former BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer said unemployment at the time was climbing fastest among workers least exposed to AI. Software developers, the classic AI-exposed occupation, were still adding jobs.

August’s information-sector data doesn’t necessarily overturn that finding, but it narrows the gap between the “no apocalypse” story and the numbers. It also fits what HRD has already covered around specific company decisions this year, where AI-attributed layoffs at individual employers sparked warnings about the pace of change outrunning workforce planning.

Not everyone agrees on how much of this is really AI. OpenAI’s own CEO has argued publicly that companies are “AI washing” cuts that would likely have happened anyway, citing normal post-boom correction and overhiring during the pandemic-era tech surge. There’s research behind that skepticism: Gartner found that only 1% of layoffs in the first half of 2025 were actually attributable to AI increasing employee productivity, meaning most AI-cited workforce reductions are being made in anticipation of returns that haven’t yet materialized. Per Gartner’s own analysis, some organizations are likely to end up rehiring for roles they’ve cut. The debate over causation is real, and it’s one reason the Trump administration’s AI policy circle has downplayed the direct employment impact even as individual company layoff announcements keep naming AI as the reason.

What HR leaders in tech-adjacent industries should do with this

The practical challenge for HR teams doesn’t change much no matter which cause turns out to be the bigger one: